The Weekly Current

General

The Panama Canal is tightening operations as below-expected rainfall continues to pressure water levels across the canal watershed. Effective September 3, daily Neopanamax transit slots have been reduced to nine, while Panamax slots will drop from 25 to 23 beginning September 15. Fewer available transits could increase wait times for vessels without reservations, prompting the Panama Canal Authority to encourage carriers to secure bookings in advance. The Canal has also adjusted how auction slots are allocated, with full container vessels carrying the highest TEU capacity receiving priority within the Neopanamax locks.

Draft restrictions are adding further pressure. A maximum authorized draft of 48 feet took effect September 2 for Neopanamax vessels, limiting how heavily some ships can be loaded. A further reduction to 47.5 feet, originally planned for September 3, has been postponed until October 1. The restrictions come despite Panama being in its rainy season, with the Canal Authority citing lower-than-expected precipitation and continuing to monitor conditions for additional adjustments. Together, fewer transit slots and tighter draft limits could lead to longer waits, reduced vessel loads, and additional pressure on alternative trade routes.

Elsewhere, the Strait of Hormuz remains under pressure amid renewed U.S.–Iran tensions and disruptions to one of the world’s most critical energy and shipping corridors. Middle East airfreight is also feeling the effects of regional conflict, airspace restrictions, longer routings, and higher fuel costs, with Europe–Middle East and Middle East–Asia cargo volumes continuing to decline even as global air cargo demand grows. Looking ahead, China’s Golden Week is approaching, and carriers are already announcing blank sailings and schedule adjustments across Asia–U.S. and Asia–Europe services, adding another potential capacity constraint heading into October.

Ocean

Ocean shipping disruptions are intensifying across Asia and the U.S. East Coast due to Panama Canal restrictions, vessel congestion, and repeated typhoon impacts in China. Carriers are rerouting vessels through the Cape of Good Hope or Suez Canal, skipping ports such as Shanghai and Ningbo, and using additional transshipment to recover schedules. However, these measures are adding days to transit times and creating further cargo rollovers, handoffs, and congestion.

Shanghai and Ningbo are seeing vessel delays of up to roughly 10 days, creating equipment and capacity constraints. At the same time, restrictions at the Panama Canal are limiting vessel capacity and adding pressure to U.S. East Coast services. Combined, these disruptions have pushed North Asia–U.S. spot rates to a four-year high.

As delays and rates rise, more shippers are shifting cargo to U.S. West Coast ports and transloading inland to meet delivery deadlines.