The Monthly Horizon

Monthly Recap

Global supply chains remained under sustained pressure throughout April, as disruptions in and around the Strait of Hormuz restricted transit, delayed vessel movement, and left roughly a fifth of global oil flows exposed to risk. While a temporary ceasefire raised hopes for stabilization, carriers remain hesitant to fully resume operations, and normalization will take time. Elevated diesel and jet fuel prices are translating into higher truckload and air cargo rates, compounded by reduced flight capacity and labor disruptions. Ocean markets are also tightening, as carriers cut capacity, layer surcharges, and complicate contract negotiations—pushing more volume into the spot market. Despite steady consumer spending, freight demand remains uneven, leaving the market caught between soft volumes and rising costs. Overall, conditions have moved beyond short-term volatility into a more sustained period of disruption, with geopolitical risk, fuel-driven inflation, and limited visibility shaping the near-term outlook.

As a reminder, May 1 is widely observed as International Workers’ Day (Labour Day) across more than 160 countries—including much of Europe, Latin America, and Asia—with China observing an extended May 1–5 Golden Week holiday. While the U.S., Canada, U.K., and Australia do not observe May 1, global office closures and reduced operations may impact processing timelines—please plan accordingly.