Tariff Talk Thursday is Back!
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Tariff Talk Thursday is Back!
Visit our Events page for details or register here.
APRIL 9, 2026
A fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has raised cautious hopes for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but major uncertainty remains. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was abruptly disrupted despite the newly announced ceasefire. About 135 container ships remain stuck in the Persian Gulf, and shipping companies are hesitant to resume normal operations given the short timeframe and risks of miscommunication or attacks. Even if transit resumes, it is expected to take weeks for shipping networks to stabilize and months for global oil production and flows to fully recover.
The ripple effects of these disruptions are now extending into broader economic conditions. The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, along with stubborn inflation, are making it less likely that we’ll see Federal Reserve rate cuts anytime soon. Rates are currently sitting around 3.5%–3.75%, and overall expectations have become more cautious. If there were to be a longer-term resolution involving Iran, it could help restore some confidence in the market.
Lufthansa Cargo has announced a planned union strike on April 10, 2026. The strike will disrupt operations, with most short-haul and many long-haul flights from Frankfurt and Munich canceled, reducing cargo capacity and causing delays. While some partner airlines and freighter services will continue operating, certain shipments—particularly specialized cargo—face temporary embargoes and must be rerouted.
NVOCC contracts are still being negotiated following the earlier completion of BCO agreements, while the slowdown in demand that began at the end of 2025 has carried into the first quarter of 2026. In response, vessel operators have been cutting back capacity to help support higher rates.
At the same time, the conversation is shifting beyond pricing. There is a growing push for more reliable sailings and consistent transit times, raising the question of whether this could be the year when carriers and the broader shipping community finally align to deliver both fair rates and dependable service.
The war with Iran has pushed up diesel prices and driven spot truckload rates sharply higher in California, the one major freight market that had largely avoided the winter pricing pressure seen in the Midwest and Northeast.
California has been the clearest holdout in a truckload market that has shown signs of tightening after a prolonged freight recession and was largely insulated from the volatility seen in the Midwest and Northeast because it did not face the same prolonged cold and snowstorms.
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