Tariff Talk

No new tariffs and only revisions downward…that was our wish for our U.S. importers as we head into 2026. Could the genie lamp work? The U.S. Supreme Court has published its intent to release decisions in argued cases during a scheduled sitting on Friday. While the announcement does not detail specific decisions to be released, many Court watchers are confident tariffs are in the mix. As some comments have come from the Court, their history is to remain silent unless matters are on their current docket.

So, what could this mean? Tariffs stand and we can plan and forecast, or the tariffs could be ruled illegal and in excess of presidential authority under the IEEPA regulations. Should the latter happen, it is anticipated that guidance to seize or refund would also be given. If refunds are recommended by the Court, the likely next step would be a requirement on an agency to publish guidance for recovery; this could be U.S. Customs, Treasury, or through CIT.

On the flip side, there are no challenges present within the Court for section 232 or section 301 tariffs. Importers must still be aware that new investigations can be opened to add duties by commodity, as was done with wooden cabinets and furniture.

Importers also cannot ignore that geopolitical tensions often result in threats of new or increased tariffs. With new tensions throughout South America, Asia, and Europe, importers must stay alert to country or item specific threats and new ITC investigations. Without a court ruling, all should anticipate tariff threats while tensions are high with Venezuela, Mexico, Colombia, as well as Greenland and Denmark.

Our hope for our clients in 2026 is unchanged; for lower or unchanged tariffs. Importers deserve the ability to plan and forecast, as changes in manufacturing and distribution take time. Take advantage of the current lull, it is unpredictable. OCEANAIR is there to help our clients explore new supply chains and distribution models throughout 2026 and beyond.