Tariff Talk Thursday is Back!
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Tariff Talk Thursday is Back!
Visit our Events page for details or register here.
July 22, 2026
Heading into hurricane season, we all anticipated the end of July would mark the start of the tropical storm. With much still in anticipation, the outer bands are beginning to stir. The eye of the storm? To be determined.
Credit: The New York Times
Effective today, July 22, a new 25% Section 301 tariff is in effect for all Brazilian goods entering the United States. The USTR press release cites the following factors behind the new tariff: “digital trade and electronic payment services; unfair, preferential tariffs; anti-corruption interference; intellectual property protection; ethanol market access; and illegal deforestation are unreasonable and burden or restrict the commerce of American farmers, workers, innovators, and exporters.” Items excluded include those in transit by ocean cargo, a list of agricultural, aerospace, and energy products, as well as the standard exclusions for donations and informational materials.
On Friday, July 24, the 10% Section 122 tariff imposed on nearly all imports into the United States will, by statute, expire. This tariff was put in place immediately after the Supreme Court ruling that resulted in refunds of IEEPA (reciprocal, fentanyl) tariffs. Has the storm passed, or is this just the eye? The administration was already busy preparing tariffs to replace IEEPA before the verdict was issued, with multiple new Section 301 investigations that could be ready as the calendar turns to August. Despite receiving more than 1,800 public comments, a 10–12.5% Section 301 tariff focused on forced labor could soon be formally published—the first named storm. Canada, EU nations, Mexico, Cambodia, and approximately 60 other countries are scheduled to face a 10% tariff for “under-enforced” forced labor measures, while China, South Korea, Japan, and others would face a 12.5% tariff due to a lack of forced labor laws and enforcement.
Credit: Clinton Herald
Behind those are other Section 301 investigations into overcapacity, with a primary focus on China, as well as one that would impose tariffs against countries purchasing Russian oil. Deeper into hurricane season, on August 19, a 50% tariff is scheduled to go into effect on Canadian goods, with some exclusions for oil, gas, and minerals. At this time, the tariff does not appear likely to exempt USMCA-qualified goods, as it is intended to respond to the retaliatory tariffs Canada imposed following U.S. tariffs.
As July continues to wind down, we are also watching the forecast for updated guidance on foreign importers and powers of attorney. With many importers experiencing verification requests focused on identification, updated requirements are expected shortly. In general, importer requirements are expected to tighten, limiting entries by foreign parties, increasing bond requirements, mandating CTPAT customs brokers, and requiring importers to meet a “good standing” definition.
The extended long-range forecast also has its eye on pharmaceuticals, with the White House announcing that generic drugs will face a 100% tariff beginning in August 2028. With hurricane season expected to continue through at least Labor Day, our forecast calls for a few named storms (increased tariffs), a pile of tropical storms (new controls and importer requirements), and a touch of tropical depression (confusion and chaos).
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