Tariff Talk

“It’s not official until it’s in the gazette.” This dated phrase still rings true in trade compliance—until we see it in the Federal Register or hear it directly from U.S. Customs via industry alerts, nothing is set in stone.

The 90-day tariff pause on country-by-country reciprocal tariffs is set to expire on July 9, and the headlines surrounding it are, at best, confusing. Some reports suggest that countries without finalized agreements will revert to the April 2 charted rates immediately, while others indicate that August 1 is the more likely effective date. During this weekend’s talk show circuit, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cited the August 1 timeline and later stated that “the United States will make several trade announcements in the next 48 hours,” noting his mailbox was flooded with new proposals overnight.

Announcements expected around July 9 will likely include updates on the UK agreement, which has already entered its Phase 1 implementation. That deal delayed the impact of steel tariff hikes and maintained a 10% reciprocal rate. Vietnam is also in focus, with reports pointing to a 20% reciprocal tariff—lower than the previously charted 46%—along with the introduction of a “transshipping” tariff targeting goods shipped from Vietnam but originating elsewhere, bringing rules of origin into sharper scrutiny. China remains on a separate timeline, with its pause set to expire in August. Rumors continue to swirl around the EU, Japan, and others.

As tariffs are wielded as negotiating tools, expect a whirlwind of headlines, last-minute changes, and shifting rates over the next 48 hours—possibly up until the final hour. So grab your coffee and your gazette—we will too. But remember, only Federal Register notices and official CBP guidance will solidify the next phase of U.S. tariff policy.

Stay tuned for our compliance exclusive breaking it all down, as soon as the official word is in.