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Cohesion Market Info September 18, 2018

September 18, 2018

Overall Situation

  1. Trans-Pacific Rate Uptick

The spot rate from Asia to the East Coast increased $33 per FEU to $3,518, and the West Coast rate went up $34 to $2,332 per FEU, according to the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index published on the JOC Shipping & Logistics Pricing Hub.  This level of spot rates, the highest in more than a year, indicates that space on vessels leaving Asia is tight and beneficial cargo owners (BCOs) and non-vessel operating common carriers (NVOCCs) are paying what it takes to get their shipments loaded.

  1. Container Volume Stronger than Expect

With importers suddenly rushing to get their shipments into the country before the next round of Trump administration tariffs on imports from China, container volumes have been stronger than anticipated. This resulted in heightened “rolling” of cargo as shipments were delayed for at least one voyage and sometimes double-rolled to a subsequent voyage because vessel space was so tight. Desperate to get their time-sensitive shipments onto vessels, BCOs and NVOCCs paid higher spot rates and premiums. The higher spot rates included bunker fuel surcharges, which have increased with the price of oil.

Market Trend

Market Level (from 15 September)

USWC:  $2200-2300

USEC:  $3400-3500

 New Products & Services

  1. Carrier Adding Capacity
Carrier Trade Action Starting Routing
HMM PS1 Replacing 3*6,350 TEU ships with 8,566 TEU (+35%) The 1st 3 weeks of Sep Shanghai, Kwan Yang, Busan, Los Angeles, Tacoma, Busan, Kwan Yang, Inchon, Shanghai
CMA CGM USWC Extra Loader 9,953 TEU CMA CGM BUTTERFLY Sep 04 Yantian, Ningbo, Los Angeles
CMA CGM USEC Extra Loader 8,465 TEU CMA CGM MELISADE Sep 20 Shanghai, Ningbo, Busan,

Houston, Mobile, New

Orleans, Miami and

Jacksonville

MAERSK USWC Extra Loader 5,042 TEU CSL SANTA MARIA Sep 6 Singapore, Tanjung

Pelepas, Yantian, Busan,

Los Angeles

MAERSK USWC Extra Loader 5,018 TEU KOWLOON BAY Sep 13 Same as above
MAERSK USWC Extra Loader 5,078 TEU DOLPHIN II August
MAERSK USEC Extra Loader 3,421 TEU ALLEGRO N August
EVERGREEN CPS/PSW5 Replacing 8,507 TEU EVER LOADING with 11,037 TEU CAPE AKRITAS Sep 06 til Nov
EVERGREEN HTW/PSW7 Replacing 6,332 TEU EVER ELITE with 8,507 TEU EVER LOADING Sep 06 til Nov

 

  1. Blank Sailings Post Golden Week
Alliance Service Loop 1st Calling Port ETD VSL/VOY
2M TP10 Xingang Oct 05
TP8 Xingang Oct 12 GUNVOR MAERSK

US841N

TP16 Xiamen Oct 19 ANNA MAERSK UL841E
PS5 Qingdao Oct 09
PS7 Xiamen Oct 12
PS4 Hong Kong Oct 21
THE EC2 Qingdao Oct 05
Qingdao Oct 19
Qingdao Nov 02
EC3 Kaohsiung Oct 12
Kaohsiung Nov 09
EC4 Kaohsiung Dec 01
Kaohsiung Dec 22
OCEAN PCS1 Fuqing Oct 07 CMA CGM T.

JEFFERSON 351E

PCC1 Ningbo Oct 13 OOCL TOKYO 088E
PNW2 Yantian Oct 15 CC NORMA 159E
PNW4 Singapore Sep 27 SANTA LORETTA 001E
EXC1 Hong Kong Oct 11 OOCL KOREA 022E
GCC1 Hong Kong Oct 14 CMA CGM LA SCALA

341E

Particulars

  1. CMA CGM 2018 Q2 Financial Statement
  Q2 – 2017 Groupe Q2 – 2018 Groupe Variation
Revenue in USD Billions 5.31 5.70 +7.4%
Core EBIT* in USD Millions 472 67 (85.8)%
Core EBIT Margin 8.9% 1.2% (7.7) ppts
Net Income Group Share in USD Millions 213.0 22.7 NS
ROIC (return on invested capital) 5.20% 7.30% 2.1 pts
Volumes carried in TEU Millions** 4.73 5.19 +9.6%
Vessel fleet 462 509 +10.2%
Fleet Capacity in TEU Millions** 2.4 2.6 +11.5%
Gearing (adjusted net debt / equity)*** 1.32 x 1.23 x (0.09) x
  1. Typhon Mangkhut

On Sep 16 No. 22 Typhoon Mangkhut hit Jiangmen, Guangdong province and it affects the area of Pearl River Delta. With the severe damage of Mangkhut, airports in Hongkong, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Macau and Zhuhai have all been shut down and many flights have been cancelled. At the same time, terminal in Fuzhou, Quangzhou, Xiamen, and Yantian have been affected variously. Roads and public transportation are still pending for clear-up.

 Air Freight

Air Cargo Growth shrinks to slowest quarterly growth in 2 years: IATA

Air freight growth slowed to its slowest pace in more than two years according to the latest IATA statistics which showed demand in freight tonne kilometers (FTKs) slowed to 2.8 per cent in the three months ended July.

While FTKs are continuing to increase in seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, the upward trend has slowed markedly from that seen during the best of the upturn in air freight last year, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said today. The significance here is that the upward FTK trend has moderated markedly over the past year or so and recently fell into on the Europe-Asia market for the first time since mid-2016, IATA added.

The pick-up in air freight demand in recent years has coincided with a stronger global economic and trade backdrop. Recent gains in world trade however, have been concentrated mainly in emerging economies.

On the crucial capacity issue, annual growth in industry-wide available freight tonne kilometers (AFTKs) in 2018, so far, has been two percentage points faster than in the same period of 2017.

Airlines based in Asia Pacific have added capacity at the fastest rate, resulting in declining load-factors after peaking in mid-2017. However, daily utilization of large wide body freighters has stayed at levels last seen in 2012, at around 11 hours per day, IATA added.

Jet fuel prices, always a key concern, were higher in 2018 so far, continuing their upward trend of recent years, around 40 per cent higher than a year ago.